Modeling approach to investigate the dynamics of Zika virus fever: A neglected disease in Africa

A simple SIR model of Zika virus fever (ZIKVF) dynamics has been presented in order to compute the basic reproduction number R0 and investigate the relative effect of each parameter in R0 through sensitivity analysis. Sensitivity indices indicated that R0 is most sensitive to the natural death rate of Aedes mosquitoes, and least sensitive to the recovery rate of human. This means that increasing the natural death rate of mosquitoes and the recovery rate of human will reduce R0 and hence, control of the disease is possible. Numerical simulation shows that ZIKVF if introduced in a system can persist because R0 = 7.03 > 1. Further studies are required in order to quantify the effect of ZIKVF in the society and the countermeasures to combat the disease. MSC: 92B05 • 92D30 • 92C60 • 93D05 • 93D20